Rethinking the Winners and Losers

Quick Quiz: Who won the New Hampshire Democratic primary? The little known correct answer is, "It depends". It has been widely reported that Hillary scored a stunning 3% victory over Barack Obama (after squandering a 10 point lead in the final month). That is a fact; however, how many delegates did each candidate earn towards the nomination of the party? The answer is that Clinton won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level), and Obama won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level). Of New Hampshire's superdelegates, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama. There are still 3 uncommitted superdelegates. Therefore, if we are judging NH electoral success on delegate counts, Obama wins by a nose. The battle will rage forward for a commitment from the remaining three superdelegates in play. Fascinating stuff. (Side note - Edwards won 4 delegates)

What was worse for Obama on primary night - learning that the pollsters overestimated his vote count, or that Edwards would forge ahead with his candidacy all the way to Denver? I think it's the latter. My belief is that Edwards loyalists would shift allegiance to Obama in large numbers compared to those who might switch to Clinton. Edwards will remain a spoiler in the race for Obama, practically assuring Hillary of the nomination. He is the "Ross Perot" of 2008. Once again, a Clinton wins without 50% of the vote.

Fred Heads left early for South Carolina apparently - if there were any. According to www.nh2008.blogspot.com, GOP write-ins defeated Fred Thompson by 1,219 votes (3,987 to 2,768). His performance in the GOP SC debate the other night was by far his most energetic of the campaign. He should beat the write-in options in SC handily.

Where have you gone, Joe Biden? The Senator from Delaware (Small Wonder) withdrew after a poor showing in Iowa. He still managed to garner more votes than active Democratic candidate, Mike Gravel. The count was Biden 612 - Gravel 396. Perhaps Gravel's popularity will rise if he drops out.

Finally, the biggest loser - Al Gore. The Draft Gore movement has officially ended, and it's only January. Rumor is Gore is laughing all the way to Cannes.

JS