Quick Quiz: Who won the New Hampshire Democratic primary? The little known correct answer is, "It depends". It has been widely reported that Hillary scored a stunning 3% victory over Barack Obama (after squandering a 10 point lead in the final month). That is a fact; however, how many delegates did each candidate earn towards the nomination of the party? The answer is that Clinton won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level), and Obama won 9 delegates (3 statewide and 6 district-level). Of New Hampshire's superdelegates, 2 support Clinton and 3 support Obama. There are still 3 uncommitted superdelegates. Therefore, if we are judging NH electoral success on delegate counts, Obama wins by a nose. The battle will rage forward for a commitment from the remaining three superdelegates in play. Fascinating stuff. (Side note - Edwards won 4 delegates)
What was worse for Obama on primary night - learning that the pollsters overestimated his vote count, or that Edwards would forge ahead with his candidacy all the way to Denver? I think it's the latter. My belief is that Edwards loyalists would shift allegiance to Obama in large numbers compared to those who might switch to Clinton. Edwards will remain a spoiler in the race for Obama, practically assuring Hillary of the nomination. He is the "Ross Perot" of 2008. Once again, a Clinton wins without 50% of the vote.
Fred Heads left early for South Carolina apparently - if there were any. According to www.nh2008.blogspot.com, GOP write-ins defeated Fred Thompson by 1,219 votes (3,987 to 2,768). His performance in the GOP SC debate the other night was by far his most energetic of the campaign. He should beat the write-in options in SC handily.
Where have you gone, Joe Biden? The Senator from Delaware (Small Wonder) withdrew after a poor showing in Iowa. He still managed to garner more votes than active Democratic candidate, Mike Gravel. The count was Biden 612 - Gravel 396. Perhaps Gravel's popularity will rise if he drops out.
Finally, the biggest loser - Al Gore. The Draft Gore movement has officially ended, and it's only January. Rumor is Gore is laughing all the way to Cannes.
JS
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Friday, January 11, 2008
The Crying Game
I like to flatter myself that I have a special perspective on the New Hampshire primary results. I was on the ground, you know. I mixed with the people. I felt the citizen vibe. Consequently, not only is my opinion on the results relevant, it is also indisputably accurate. I have no hard evidence, mind you - but I was there. HA!
In the months leading up to the primary, Hillary held a 10 point lead in most polls, and that lead had remained relatively stable for some time. During our visit, my feeling after seeing Hillary was that she was playing defense way too early in the contest. She was distant from the NH voters, protected by the Secret Service and the air of inevitability. The last thing she was going to do was put herself out there, appear vulnerable in any way. In New Hampshire, if they don't know you, they won't vote for you. Regardless of your political persuasion, I think you'd agree she's a hard person to get to know.
Is this why she faded in the polls? Yes, I think so. The Obama Phenomenon was palpable, and we didn't get the opportunity to see him. The people we met and discussed politics with all mentioned him. He was an American Idol in NH long before the press jumped on that bandwagon. He was real, she was not. He was new, she was recycled. He connected, she made appearances.
This doesn't explain why Hillary won, though. I'm getting to that.
The whimper? Please. I have never heard of a more sexist, degrading comment in my life than this: "Women in New Hampshire switched their vote to Hillary after seeing her cry." Is our accepted view of women in the public square so shallow that we believe that votes are won and lost based on feminine emotional empathy? I refuse to accept that explanation. First, it is demeaning to suggest. Second, the "cry" happened too close to the voting to sway votes. Third, the cry theory works from the premise that the polls were correct showing Obama's 13 point lead in the first place. Fourth, I have a higher regard for Americans than that - perhaps a misplaced regard (see "Two Terms for Bush"), but a regard nonetheless.
Racism? The idea has been floated that NH-ites were embarrassed to tell pollsters that they were against the black candidate; however, once hidden from public view in the booth, they could freely and anonymously express their latent racist tendencies. In the 21st century, such stupidity can't exist. I couldn't go on if I thought such stupidity was possible.
Here's my theory, supported by exactly zero exit polls. I call it the "Pacific Time Zone Theory". Back a few years, the news outlets used to announce presidential winners before the polls closed on the West Coast. Because the results were already determined, turnout was suppressed because people knew their votes were meaningless. This also allowed those voters to vote their conscious, or register a protest vote, knowing that it would not change the final election result. It was a safe vote to make. I believe that this happened in New Hampshire. The pollsters and pundits were so certain of Obama's impending 13 point victory that voters were equally convinced. Knowing that Obama would win, NH voters pulled the curtain behind them and thought, "Well, since Obama is going to win anyway, I'll vote for someone else to make it close." This follows from NH voters reputation for contrarian voting. They resented the election being decided in the papers before a vote was cast.
In sum, Obama was never ahead 13 points, but he was ahead in voter preference going into election day. The drumbeat of inevitability for an Obama victory worked against him. NH prefers the underdog, and the press remade Hillary as the underdog. The media convinced the voters that their vote couldn't change the outcome.
I look forward to a world without pre-election polling. It might even be a world where Joe Biden becomes President of the United States.
JS
In the months leading up to the primary, Hillary held a 10 point lead in most polls, and that lead had remained relatively stable for some time. During our visit, my feeling after seeing Hillary was that she was playing defense way too early in the contest. She was distant from the NH voters, protected by the Secret Service and the air of inevitability. The last thing she was going to do was put herself out there, appear vulnerable in any way. In New Hampshire, if they don't know you, they won't vote for you. Regardless of your political persuasion, I think you'd agree she's a hard person to get to know.
Is this why she faded in the polls? Yes, I think so. The Obama Phenomenon was palpable, and we didn't get the opportunity to see him. The people we met and discussed politics with all mentioned him. He was an American Idol in NH long before the press jumped on that bandwagon. He was real, she was not. He was new, she was recycled. He connected, she made appearances.
This doesn't explain why Hillary won, though. I'm getting to that.
The whimper? Please. I have never heard of a more sexist, degrading comment in my life than this: "Women in New Hampshire switched their vote to Hillary after seeing her cry." Is our accepted view of women in the public square so shallow that we believe that votes are won and lost based on feminine emotional empathy? I refuse to accept that explanation. First, it is demeaning to suggest. Second, the "cry" happened too close to the voting to sway votes. Third, the cry theory works from the premise that the polls were correct showing Obama's 13 point lead in the first place. Fourth, I have a higher regard for Americans than that - perhaps a misplaced regard (see "Two Terms for Bush"), but a regard nonetheless.
Racism? The idea has been floated that NH-ites were embarrassed to tell pollsters that they were against the black candidate; however, once hidden from public view in the booth, they could freely and anonymously express their latent racist tendencies. In the 21st century, such stupidity can't exist. I couldn't go on if I thought such stupidity was possible.
Here's my theory, supported by exactly zero exit polls. I call it the "Pacific Time Zone Theory". Back a few years, the news outlets used to announce presidential winners before the polls closed on the West Coast. Because the results were already determined, turnout was suppressed because people knew their votes were meaningless. This also allowed those voters to vote their conscious, or register a protest vote, knowing that it would not change the final election result. It was a safe vote to make. I believe that this happened in New Hampshire. The pollsters and pundits were so certain of Obama's impending 13 point victory that voters were equally convinced. Knowing that Obama would win, NH voters pulled the curtain behind them and thought, "Well, since Obama is going to win anyway, I'll vote for someone else to make it close." This follows from NH voters reputation for contrarian voting. They resented the election being decided in the papers before a vote was cast.
In sum, Obama was never ahead 13 points, but he was ahead in voter preference going into election day. The drumbeat of inevitability for an Obama victory worked against him. NH prefers the underdog, and the press remade Hillary as the underdog. The media convinced the voters that their vote couldn't change the outcome.
I look forward to a world without pre-election polling. It might even be a world where Joe Biden becomes President of the United States.
JS
Thursday, January 10, 2008
The Seeds We Plant Today...
Before the New Hampshire primary, Marra and I watched part of the GOP debate (before I marched her up to bed). Inspired by her old man, she grabbed some index cards and starting writing materials for this blog. Here it is, uncensored:
MARRA
In my opinion, Fred Thompson shouldn't be President. He's an actor, not a President! (Plus, he's kinda too old). But, then again, George Bush is an actor, too. He acts every day like he knows what he's doing. I was pretty surprised when he (Thompson) came in third for the Iowa caucus. The same place as Hillary, who I always thought was really popular. My mom says women are too emotional to be President. If there was a war, my mom said, Hillary would sit down and cry. I said no, YOU'RE too emotional to be President. Hillary has held up pretty good. Here is my opinion on all the candidates (well, the ones who have a chance anyway).
Barack Obama - So far, he's my fav. But maybe that's just cuz I've never heard anyone say bad stuff about him. I give him a 9 on a 1-10 scale.
Mitt Romney - One of my least favorites. He's kinda of mean. He disses Hillary a lot, and made a commercial that goes like this: "When Republicans start acting like Democrats, America loses." Meanie! How rude to Democrats. America lost when GB got elected. He should say "When Republicans start acting like George Bush, America loses." I give him a 0 out of 10.
John Edwards - He used to be my favorite but my mom made a pretty good point: HIs wife has CANCER and he's gone all the time trying to be President. Come on, John. Can you realize what your wife is going through? Plus, along with the other Democrats, he's pro-choice.
I know this isn't a hige issue, but when I was younger, I came up with this plan to change gas prices. I would buy a gas company, and lower all my prices. Sure, I'd be in debt for awhile, but I'd be so popular that I could pay it off soon. All other companies would lower prices to compete with me, and Hooray. All better. Now, I think I'll just become a hostess of Jeopardy instead. Or maybe be the 1st woman President hopefully. (Sorry, Hillary). But I think it would be pretty cool if Hillary became President since I have her picture and autograph. Even if her earrings don't usually match.
Marra
MARRA
In my opinion, Fred Thompson shouldn't be President. He's an actor, not a President! (Plus, he's kinda too old). But, then again, George Bush is an actor, too. He acts every day like he knows what he's doing. I was pretty surprised when he (Thompson) came in third for the Iowa caucus. The same place as Hillary, who I always thought was really popular. My mom says women are too emotional to be President. If there was a war, my mom said, Hillary would sit down and cry. I said no, YOU'RE too emotional to be President. Hillary has held up pretty good. Here is my opinion on all the candidates (well, the ones who have a chance anyway).
Barack Obama - So far, he's my fav. But maybe that's just cuz I've never heard anyone say bad stuff about him. I give him a 9 on a 1-10 scale.
Mitt Romney - One of my least favorites. He's kinda of mean. He disses Hillary a lot, and made a commercial that goes like this: "When Republicans start acting like Democrats, America loses." Meanie! How rude to Democrats. America lost when GB got elected. He should say "When Republicans start acting like George Bush, America loses." I give him a 0 out of 10.
John Edwards - He used to be my favorite but my mom made a pretty good point: HIs wife has CANCER and he's gone all the time trying to be President. Come on, John. Can you realize what your wife is going through? Plus, along with the other Democrats, he's pro-choice.
I know this isn't a hige issue, but when I was younger, I came up with this plan to change gas prices. I would buy a gas company, and lower all my prices. Sure, I'd be in debt for awhile, but I'd be so popular that I could pay it off soon. All other companies would lower prices to compete with me, and Hooray. All better. Now, I think I'll just become a hostess of Jeopardy instead. Or maybe be the 1st woman President hopefully. (Sorry, Hillary). But I think it would be pretty cool if Hillary became President since I have her picture and autograph. Even if her earrings don't usually match.
Marra
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
What is Prologue is Now Past
The results from the New Hampshire primary are in. Hillary Clinton is the victor on the Democratic side. John McCain wins on the Republican side. New Hampshire represented the end of the road for my dream of participating in the nominating process and sharing my passion for politics with my daughter. In the presidential race, however, this is only the beginning. If your local broadcaster tells you otherwise, I suggest you rise up and scream, "We're mad as hell, and we're not going to take it anymore!" The competition is far from over. The polls haven't opened yet in the remaining states.
Of course, I did predict Hillary and McCain as their respective party nominees months ago.
There is so much more I have to say - about Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Romney, McCain. All really gripping stuff. And I will get it down on the keyboard soon. Marra has some written thoughts I will publish in the blog soon, too. But this journey was really all about me and Marra. We both won the New Hampshire primary.
JS
Of course, I did predict Hillary and McCain as their respective party nominees months ago.
There is so much more I have to say - about Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Romney, McCain. All really gripping stuff. And I will get it down on the keyboard soon. Marra has some written thoughts I will publish in the blog soon, too. But this journey was really all about me and Marra. We both won the New Hampshire primary.
JS
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